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Roughly $1 billion a year, for 14 years
MTC projects about $1.05 billion annually based on 2027 to 2031 taxable sales. Over the full term that is more than $14 billion locked in, regardless of how transit performs.
This November, voters in Alameda, Contra Costa, San Francisco, San Mateo, and Santa Clara counties will be asked to raise the sales tax to bail out Bay Area transit. The increase is half a cent in four counties and a full cent in San Francisco, and it runs for fourteen years. Before we lock in roughly a billion dollars a year, the agencies should fix what is broken.
The biggest cities, before and after the transit tax:
| City | Now | After |
|---|---|---|
| Hayward | 10.75% | 11.25% |
| Oakland | 10.75% | 11.25% |
| Berkeley | 10.25% | 10.75% |
| Fremont | 10.25% | 10.75% |
| San Jose | 10.00% | 10.50% |
| San Francisco | 8.625% | 9.625% |
The Bay Area already carries some of the highest sales taxes in California. Sales tax is regressive: it falls hardest on working families, renters, and anyone living paycheck to paycheck, because it taxes what you spend rather than what you earn. It applies to cars, appliances, restaurant meals, and even gasoline. This measure would push seven Alameda County cities past 11 percent.
| City | Current rate | After the transit tax |
|---|---|---|
| Hayward | 10.750% | 11.250% |
| Oakland | 10.750% | 11.250% |
| Berkeley | 10.250% | 10.750% |
| Fremont | 10.250% | 10.750% |
| San Jose | 10.000% | 10.500% |
| San Francisco | 8.625% | 9.625% |
Current combined rate
With the transit tax added
The tax was authorized by SB 63 (Wiener, 2025), which lets a new Metropolitan Transportation Commission body, the Public Transit Revenue Measure District, place a 14-year sales tax before voters in five counties. The four northern counties, Marin, Napa, Solano, and Sonoma, opted out.
MTC projects about $1.05 billion annually based on 2027 to 2031 taxable sales. Over the full term that is more than $14 billion locked in, regardless of how transit performs.
Fourteen years is a long time. Driverless trains and buses, services like Waymo, and the permanent shift to remote and hybrid work are already reshaping how the Bay Area moves. This tax commits taxpayers to today's cost structure long after it stops making sense.
A billion a year does not close the gap. The region's top transit agencies already received about $5.1 billion in subsidies in 2024, and Plan Bay Area 2050+ seeks roughly $500 billion in transit funding over 25 years. This tax papers over the problem without fixing it.
Rather than place the measure on the ballot itself, which would require a two-thirds vote to pass, the district chose a citizens' initiative gathering signatures across five counties, which can pass with a simple majority.
Under the SB 63 formulas, no county's residents get all of their tax dollars spent in their own county. Much of the money flows to the largest and most troubled operators.
SB 63 includes language about reviews, reports, and oversight, but none of it is binding. The agencies can continue business as usual while collecting the money.
Costs have soared, ridership has not recovered, and the region's signature projects have run badly over budget. The full record is on the next page.
BART's operating subsidy jumped from $191 million to $682 million while operating costs rose 50 percent, even as service was cut.
See the full record →The inflation-adjusted cost of carrying one rider one trip averaged 507 percent of its 1980 level over 2020 to 2024, after peaking at 888 percent in 2021.
See the data →Regional ridership sat near 500 million trips a year from 1980 to 2019 while population grew 51 percent. It fell 75 percent in the pandemic and has recovered only to about 70 percent.
See the trend →In 2024 the highest-paid BART employee was a police officer at $661,388 in pay and benefits, including $272,534 in overtime, out-earning the General Manager.
See who gets paid →Voting no does not shut down transit. It forces the state and the agencies to do what they should have done already: pay for service out of the money they are pouring into capital megaprojects, and bring back a leaner plan in 2028.
We are organizing the opposition across all five counties and we need help.
Put your opposition where neighbors will see it. Sign up now to reserve a "No on the Transit Tax" lawn sign. Signs will be available starting in August.
Submit opinion pieces and letters to the editor in local outlets across the five counties.
Bring the facts to civic, professional, and neighborhood meetings, and share new research with the group.