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Roughly $1 billion a year, for 14 years
MTC projects about $1.05 billion annually based on 2027 to 2031 taxable sales. Over the full term that is more than $14 billion locked in, regardless of how transit performs.
This November, voters in Alameda, Contra Costa, San Francisco, San Mateo, and Santa Clara counties will be asked to raise the sales tax to bail out Bay Area transit. The increase is half a cent (0.5%) in the four other counties and a full cent (1%) in San Francisco, and it runs for fourteen years. Before we lock in roughly a billion dollars a year, the agencies should fix what is broken.
The biggest cities, before and after the transit tax:
| City | Now | After |
|---|---|---|
| Hayward | 10.75% | 11.25% |
| Oakland | 10.75% | 11.25% |
| Berkeley | 10.25% | 10.75% |
| Fremont | 10.25% | 10.75% |
| San Jose | 10.00% | 10.50% |
| Richmond | 9.75% | 10.25% |
| San Francisco | 8.625% | 9.625% |
The Bay Area already carries some of the highest sales taxes in California, and this measure would push seven Alameda County cities past 11 percent. Sales tax is regressive: it falls hardest on working families, renters, and anyone living paycheck to paycheck, because it taxes what you spend rather than what you earn, and it applies to cars, appliances, restaurant meals, and even gasoline.
Current combined rate
With the transit tax added
Dollar figures estimate the sales tax a household pays on its taxable spending, based on the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics Consumer Expenditure Survey (West region), scaled to household size. Actual amounts vary with what you buy.
The tax was authorized by SB 63 (Wiener, 2025), which lets a new Metropolitan Transportation Commission body, the Public Transit Revenue Measure District, place a 14-year sales tax before voters in five counties. The four northern counties, Marin, Napa, Solano, and Sonoma, opted out.
MTC projects about $1.05 billion annually based on 2027 to 2031 taxable sales. Over the full term that is more than $14 billion locked in, regardless of how transit performs.
Fourteen years is a long time. Driverless trains and buses, services like Waymo, and the permanent shift to remote and hybrid work are already reshaping how the Bay Area moves. This tax commits taxpayers to today's cost structure long after it stops making sense.
A billion a year does not close the gap. Bay Area transit already takes in roughly $6 billion a year in tax, toll, and grant subsidies. This tax papers over the problem without fixing it.
Rather than place the measure on the ballot itself, which would require a two-thirds vote to pass, the district chose a citizens' initiative gathering signatures across five counties, which can pass with a simple majority.
SB 63 writes fixed percentages into state law for how each county's sales tax is divided among BART, Muni, AC Transit, Caltrain, and other operators. Only about a third returns to county agencies to spend at their discretion; the rest is locked to the largest and most troubled operators by a formula voters cannot change. Approving the tax gives your community no say over where its dollars go.
SB 63 includes language about reviews, reports, and oversight, but none of it is binding. The agencies can continue business as usual while collecting the money.
Costs have soared, ridership has not recovered, and the region's signature projects have run badly over budget. The full record is on the next page.
BART's operating subsidy rose 257 percent, from $191 million in FY19 to $682 million in FY26, while operating costs rose 50 percent and service was cut.
See the full record →The inflation-adjusted cost of carrying one rider one trip averaged 507 percent of its 1980 level over 2020 to 2024, after peaking at 888 percent in 2021.
See the data →Regional ridership sat near 500 million trips a year from 1980 to 2019 while population grew 51 percent. It fell 75 percent in the pandemic and has recovered only to about 70 percent, leaving it roughly 30 percent below pre-pandemic levels.
See the trend →In 2024 the highest-paid BART employee was a police officer at $661,388 in pay and benefits, including $272,534 in overtime, out-earning the General Manager. In all, 51 BART employees collected more than $400,000 in pay and benefits that year, 43 of them in the police department.
See who gets paid →Before the region asks for another billion dollars a year, look at what it already collects. In fiscal year 2024-25, the Bay Area's transit operators took in roughly $6 billion in tax, toll, and government grant subsidies across the five counties, on top of the fares, parking, and advertising revenue they also keep.
Tax, toll, and grant subsidies flowing to Bay Area transit in FY2024-25, every year, before a single dollar of any new tax.
The $6 billion is public money only, and it dwarfs what riders pay. Statewide, California transit recovered just 10 percent of operating costs from fares in 2023; parking, advertising, and investment income add only a little more.
| Operator | FY2024-25 subsidy | Basis |
|---|---|---|
| VTA (Santa Clara) | $1,707M | Audited ACFR |
| BART | $1,632M | Audited ACFR |
| SFMTA / Muni | $1,422M | Audited statements |
| AC Transit | $594M | Estimate |
| Caltrain (PCJPB) | $363M | Audited ACFR |
| SamTrans | $276M | Audited ACFR |
| Small East Bay operators | $150M | Estimate |
| WETA / SF Bay Ferry | $98M | Estimate |
| Total | ~$6,242M | Point estimate ≈ $6.2B (range $6.0–6.3B) |
The VTA and SFMTA totals are agency-wide and include some non-transit functions, such as local streets and parking; a portion of Santa Clara's 2016 Measure B is dedicated to roads rather than transit. Caltrain's capital figure includes about $60 million in member-agency contributions that also appear in the SamTrans, SFMTA, and VTA totals. Netting those overlaps and adding the operators left off this list, such as Golden Gate Transit's San Francisco service, the Capitol Corridor, and ACE, leaves a point estimate near $6.2 billion.
Voting no does not shut down transit. It forces the state and the agencies to do what they should have done already: pay for service out of the money they are pouring into capital megaprojects, and bring back a leaner plan in 2028.
We are organizing the opposition across all five counties and we need help.
Put your opposition where neighbors will see it. Sign up now to reserve a "No on the Transit Tax" lawn sign. Signs will be available starting in August.
Submit opinion pieces and letters to the editor in local outlets across the five counties.
Bring the facts to civic, professional, and neighborhood meetings, and share new research with the group.
To reserve a lawn sign, contribute research, or volunteer across the five counties, sign up here and we will be in touch.